Week Two Overreaction

RAGING BRONCOS

“The Sheriff” Peyton Manning has tossed 9 TDs in 2 games without throwing an interception. The receiving core is in simpatico with the future Hall of Famer like they’ve spent a decade together. Plus, the running game gave them the balance on offense against the Giants that they missed last season. Knowshon Mareno carried the ball the 13 times for 93 yards and a touchdown. The Broncos are the leading scoring team in the NFL, 2nd best is the Green Bay Packers with 66 points. Denver has scored that amount in the 2nd half combined in two games. I predict the Broncos will shatter the 2007 New England Patriots single season scoring record of 589. At 90 points every two games, they are on pace to score 720.

PRESEASON IS IMPORTANT, AT LEAST FOR QUARTERBACKS

RGIII has struggled in the first two games and so has Washington. Last season Griffin only had 7 turnovers (5 Interceptions, 2 Fumbles) total in 16 games, he has 3 interceptions already this season. His QB rating is down to 89.6 from 102.4, But it’s bigger then stats. He doesn’t pass the “eye test”, he looks tentative and so do the play callers. If it takes until week 4 to knock the rust off, it could be too late, then again they are only 1 game back of first place since the NFC East looked so bad yesterday. Which brings me to…….

THE NFC EAST IS THE 2ND WORST DIVISION IN THE NFL

After the AFC North went winless in week 1, the NFC East did the same in week 2. But truthfully they weren’t as bad as the AFC North. The Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys had a chance to win their match ups, but the New York Giants and Washington Redskins looked atrocious. I picked the Cowboys to win this division, and after seeing the rest of the NFC East in two weeks, I think by mid October they’ll pull away from the pack. They’re playing the best, especially on defense where it counts.

OH & TWO

New York Giants, Washington Redskins, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Minnesota Vikings, Cleveland Browns, Carolina Panthers, Jacksonville Jaguars and the loser of tonight’s game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cincinnati Bengals…..your season might as well be over.

Since 1990 only 12% of the teams that have started 0-2 made the playoffs. But if you’re a Super Bowl or bust team there is hope, albeit slim. The last 0-2 team to make Super Bowl…… The 2007 New York Giants and you know how historic that was, don’t cha Tom Brady?

OVERREACTION PREDICTION

If the Seattle Seahawks get home field advantage in the NFC Playoffs, they will represent the NFC in New York for Super Bowl 48. The Seahawks have won their last 9 (8-0 in 2012) home games by an average of 30.2 (272 total points) points per game, while the defense is only allowing 10.8 (98 total points) points per game. You mix that 12th Man crowd noise – last night they set the Guinness World Record for loudest stadium at 136.6 decibels – with late January weather in the great Northwest and you have a recipe for disaster for NFC opponents. In my preseason predictions I picked Atlanta to go to the Super Bowl and win, not if Seattle gets home field.

What To Watch In Week Two

Week two in the NFL kicks-off Thursday night, and it’s already rivalry week. Here’s a look at the best games on the schedule.

N.Y. JETS @ N.E. PATRIOTS (Thursday, 8pm)

Rookie Geno Smith was decent in his first start at quarterback (24/38, 256 yards with a touchdown and interception.) Still, the Jets needed a bone head play by Tampa Bay Buccaneer linebacker Lavonte David and a 48 yard field goal by Nick Folk to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

The matchup with the Pats will be the first true test for Smith. Coach Bill Belichick is known for dominating and confusing rookie QBs, yet in week one, Buffalo Bills rookie QB E.J. Manuel was able to throw for 2 touchdowns with no turnovers against “The Hoodie’s” schemes. It took a late Stephen Gostkowski field goal to slip by the Bills.

Both teams are dealing with uncertainty on offense with injuries and new faces. The Pats will be without their leading rusher from week one, Shane Vereen (14 carries for 101 yards). The Jets are still trying to figure everything out. They have lost the last 5 to the Pats including a 49-19 beat down last Thanksgiving night that gave us, “The Butt Fumble.”

The Pats have swept the season series the last two seasons. Yet, if the Jets can pull off the upset, they’ll be in at least a tie for first place in the AFC East come Sunday night. Who saw that coming?

DENVER BRONCOS @ N.Y. GIANTS (Sunday, 4:25pm)

There are those who say Eli Manning is better than Peyton Manning because he has two Super Bowl rings and has been more clutch when it counts, in the postseason. I’m not one of them. After what I saw from Peyton against Baltimore – 462 yards passing and 7 TDs – in the opener and the abysmal Giants defense on Sunday night in Dallas – who will probably be without their best cornerback Prince Amukamura (concussion), I see Big Brother Peyton riding his “Fearsome Foursome” (Welker, DeMaryius Thomas, Decker & Julius Thomas ) of receiving threats to another win in the Manning bowl to move to 3-0 against his little brother.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (Sunday, 8:30 pm)

Anquan Boldin vs. Richard Sherman. Colin Kaepernick vs. Russell Wilson. Jim Harbaugh vs. Pete Carroll. While the other two match ups should decide who will win, the Harbaugh-Carroll match up is a cantankerous one that goes back to Stanford vs. USC. I just want to see the pre-game and post game handshakes.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=WeS3VeluAmg

On the field, I don’t expect Kaepernick to throw for 400 plus yards against the Seahawks tall, physical, athletic defensive backs, but I see him gaining more than 22 yards rushing (his totals from week 1.) I do expect Russell Wilson to be as efficient at home as he was against Carolina, which is saying alot since he was 25 of 33 for 320 yards and a touchdown.

In their last meeting (SEA 42-13; 12/23/12) Wilson threw a career-high four touchdown passes and Marshawn Lynch scored two first-quarter TDs. Don’t expect Lynch to be bundled up two weeks in a row – he gained only 43 yards on 17 carries against the Panthers – he’s rushed for 100+ yards in his last three meetings against the Niners. This is meeting one of two in what could be a preview of the NFC Championship game.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS (Monday 8:40 pm)

I was hard on the AFC North division after week one, so was the national media and rightfully so. They are the only winless division in pro football. That will end this week with these two teams meeting and Cleveland playing at Baltimore, unless there are two ties (If you watched these teams play last week that could happen.) Cincinnati is the favorite to win this division by many, present company included. In order to do so, they have to beat the big boys of the division in Pittsburgh and Baltimore, who have controlled the AFC North for almost two decades. Their first crack is the Steelers.

New Bengal and former Steeler linebacker James Harrison will be looking for payback since the Black & Gold didn’t resign him in the offseason. The Steelers have been taking it on the chin all week after looking like their game was drowned in the Three Rivers outside of Heinz Field. There is little doubt Head Coach Mike Tomlin will have his team ready to bounce back.

The two teams split the season series in 2012, with each winning on the other’s home field (PIT 24-17, 10/21/12; CIN 13-10; 12/23/12.) This early season matchup will have a playoff feel, neither team wants to fall in an 0-2 hole. Even though I think 8-8 will win this division, a two game deficit will not bode well for either to make a legit run in January.

What Did We Learn From Week 1?

The clock has struck zero on the first week of the NFL season. So what did we learn (If anything)? Here’s a quick recap, I’ll also call this Overreaction Tuesday.

KAEPERNICK IS THAT GOOD AND HE LIKES PLAYING THE PACKERS:

Many wondered what the third year Quarterback could do after his first full training camp as the starter in San Francisco. All he did, was just prove that his record setting playoff debut against the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Divisional round wasn’t a fluke. Sunday, Kaepernick threw for a career high 412 yards and 3 touchdowns while only rushing for 22 yards, far less than the record (for a quarterback) 181 yards he racked up this past January. Next up, the highly anticipated matchup with rival Seattle Seahawks. Pete Carroll and his Defense are in a quandary, stop Kaepernick’s arm or legs?

Oh and that Anquan Boldin trade looks like highway robbery. Boldin had 13 catches for 208 yards and a touchdown. I bet the Baltimore Ravens wish they still had him. If only every coach in the league had a brother to trade him one of his best players.

PEYTON MANNIG IS REALLY BACK:

In his first game after neck surgery that kept him out for the entire 2011 Season, Peyton lit up the Steelers defense – last season’s number one against the pass – for 253 yards and two touchdowns on 19 of 26 in a 31 to 19 victory to open 2012. After that game, everyone said Peyton was back. Well after throwing 7 touchdowns on 27 of 42 Passing with 462 Yards, The Sheriff is the leader in the clubhouse for MVP and is REALLY back.

THE NEW YORK GIANTS NEED AN UPGRADE AT RUNNING BACK:

David Wilson had two key fumbles and his backup Da’Rel Scott was lost and confused on a screen pass play, that he tipped up and was intercepted and returned for a touchdown by Brandon Carr to seal the game for the Dallas Cowboys. The G-Men’s RBs only managed 50 yards on 14 carries for an average of 3.6. Even worse, they looked lost in pass protection. Eli was under pressure by Demarcus Ware and the Boys all night. Willis Mcgahee, Chris Beanie Wells, Cedrick Benson, Kevin Smith, Brandon Jacobs..the list goes on. Pick one, matter of fact take two. You need them.

THE AFC NORTH HAS LOST IT’S LUSTER:

I picked the Cincinnati Bengals to win this division before the preseason, I stick to that, but with an 0-4 week 1 in which the two traditional powerhouses of Baltimore and Pittsburgh looked like, well, how Cleveland and Cincinnati usually look, and both those teams giving away halftime leads to lose, this division might be won at 8-8. The Ravens Defense looked like many thought it would after losing two future Hall of Famers in Ray Lewis and Ed Reed and the Steelers still can’t protect their only playmaker on offense. Roethlisberger was sacked 5 times and the running game only managed 32 yards against a Tennessee Titan Defense that gave up the most points in the NFL in 2012. 8-8 will win this division, watch and see.

THERE IS A D IN DALLAS AFTERALL:

The Cowboys Defense set the tone against the New York Giants causing them to turnover the ball 6 – the most in one game since 1987- and sacking Eli Manning 3 times. The Dallas D only managed 16 turnovers in 2012. We know Jerry Jones loves his offensive toys and pays them well, but his best acquisitions of the offseason seem to be defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin and Defensive line coach Rod Marinelli. If Tony Romo can avoid being Turnover Romo, the Cowboys could finally live up to expectations.

THE SAINTS ARE MARCHING:

The Atlanta Falcons are the sexy pick by many to represent the NFC in Super Bowl 48 and win the Lombardi – author raises hand- but the Saints who had a historically bad defensive last season – they gave up the most yards in NFL History – held down the high flying Atlanta offense. Head Coach Sean Peyton returned from a year long suspension related to “Bounty-gate” and looks poised to lead Nawlins back to the top of the division.

THROWBACK REGGIE BUSH:

Bush looked like the guy who created video game like highlights at USC and his first couple of years with the New Orleans Saints. Bush ran for 90 yards on 21 carries, but it was his 101 yards receiving, 77 on a screen pass play he took to the house blowing by everyone, that Detriot Lions fans hope will help alleviate pressure on the Marthew Stafford/Calvin Johnson combo. If they can get half of this every week, they’ll be back in the playoffs for only the second time in two decades.

THE EAGLES OFFENSE IS FAST AND FURIOUS, SO IS THE D:

Many doubted – and still do – if Philadelphia’s new Head Coach Chip Kelly and his uptempo Oregon offense would work in the pro game, but through one game we can see they will put pressure on the opposing defense, even if its just wearing them down. Philly’s offense ran 19 plays in their first three possessions – scoring a field goal and touchdown, after a Washington fumble on their first offensive play of the game – and that was with 9:07 still left in the first quarter.

Before a backwards pass returned for a touchdown stalled their first drive, the Eagles quickly moved down the field in 5 plays to get into the red zone. The next drive after the defensive touchdown, the Eagles went right down the field again in a hurry and got 3 points.

Kelly’s offense had the ball for 20:20, produced 53 plays, 322 yards, 21 1st downs and most importantly, 24 points in the first half alone. LeSean McCoy shined with 31 carries, 184 yards a touchdown and several highlights plays that will made the top ten list of several nightly sports cast shows. It’s only one game, and we haven’t seen all Coach Kelly has to offer, but it will be fast and furious.

Lets not forget about Defensive Coordinator Bill Davis’ unit. The Eagles D, made it difficult for Robert Griffin the Third and the Washington offense from getting into any kind of rhythm. They didn’t get into the red zone until 7 minutes left in the third quarter and then missed a field goal that would’ve given them their first points of the game.

Everyone expected the Eagles offense to play fast, but not the D. The Defense got 3 Sacks on RGIII, 3 (2 Interceptions) turnovers and a safety. But, and there is one, it was with the lead. What will that high flying offense look like when they’re playing from behind.