2017 NFL Rookie Most Likely to…

The 2017 NFL Draft Class was full of star power and several of those members will light up the League real soon. Photo Credit: ESPN.com

The dawn of the 2017 NFL Season has arrived and a new crop of college stars are preparing to make their mark in pro football.

Teams put a premium on defense this past draft. 131 defensive players were selected to 118 offensive. 34 of those players were cornerbacks, the most of any single position, 5 in the first round. If you combine the 3 Safeties, defensive back was the most selected unit in the draft. In all 67 defensive backs were picked in 2017.

I’ve done this exercise the two previous seasons and I’ve hit on some already, some are close to happening, and I’ve missed VERY BADLY on one. My apologies to my fellow Ohio State Alum Joey Bosa.

As with any draft in every sport, the situation you’re drafted to is more important than when you’re selected. It’s fun and difficult to predict how these guys will affect their team’s success or failures. So, here’s how I see several of this year’s crop of rookies careers panning out.

Most likely to lead the NFL in passing yards…. Patrick Mahomes (10th overall pick/Kansas City Chiefs). Andy Reid and his staff moved up to select the Texas Tech QB. Everyone knows the Red Raiders offense is a hyper passing scheme that tends to lead to video game numbers that doesn’t necessarily transition to the NFL. But, Mahomes should be different because he’s no “check down Charlie” like current Kansas City quarterback Alex Smith. Mahomes has the arm strength to push the ball down the field and Reid, a west coast offense guy, who’s called plays for Donovan McNabb when the Philadelphia Eagles went to four NFC title games and a Super Bowl, Brett Favre when he won three consecutive NFL MVPs and Michael Vick when he revived his career after a stint in prison. Mahomes has a real QB whisperer in his ear.

Most likely to lead the league in rushing yards…. Leonard Fournette (4th overall pick/Jacksonville Jaguars). He will play with a quarterback, in Blake Bortles, that has led the league in turnovers with 63 since entering the League in 2014. Bortles struggled to hold on to the starting job in the preseason, with Coach Marrone going as far to say he preferred to not have Blake pass the ball.

The Jags coaching staff already believes in smash mouth defense and a ball control offense.  In 2016 the Jags running game averaged 4.2 yards per carry, which was 17th in the NFL, and 101.9 yards per game that was 22nd. Fournette alone will improve those numbers. He’ll have to if Bortles can’t shake the yips.

Most likely to lead the NFL in receptions, receiving yards and receiving TDs… Taywon Taylor (3rd round, 72nd pick/Titans). The ball is like a magnet to his hands. During his senior season with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers he broke and set the school’s single season record for receptions and yards with 98 catches for 1,730 yards to go along with 17 TDs. He finished his career with a school record 253 catches for 4,234 yards and 41 TDs.

The Titans have a strong running game with DeMarco Murray, Derrick Henry and Marcus Marriota running the read-option. What they need is a threat in the passing game and Taylor will provide just that.

Most likely to lead the league in sacks… T.J. Watt (30th overall pick/Pittsburgh Steelers). First reason, it is in his blood lines. He’s a Watt. Second, he plays for the Pittsburgh Steelers in a 3-4 scheme that is only successful when it’s LBs blitz the QB. He got his first sack on Pittsburgh’s first defensive trip on the field in their first preseason game, he followed that up with another sack on the first play of their second defensive drive. At Wisconsin he collected 11.5 sacks in the 27 games he played. It’s what he does. Third, he’ll have the likes of Cameron Heyward and Stephon Tuitt occupying offensive linemen to allow him to get free, plus with Ryan Shazier, Vince Williams and Bud Dupree playing alongside him, offenses won’t be scheming to stop Watt. Initially.

Most likely to lead the NFL in turnovers… Deshone Kizer (2nd round, Pick 52nd/Cleveland Browns). This organization has been snake bitten at the quarterback position since they returned to the League in 1999. Nearly 30 have started a game for the Browns in the last 18 seasons.

Cleveland is in the midst of a fire sale and don’t have much around Kizer at the skills positions. Their leading receiver from 2016, Terrelle Pryor, is in Washington and their second leading receiver, tight end Gary Barnidge, is still on the free agent market. The current leading receiver from 2016 is running back Duke Johnson Junior who had 52 catches for 514 yards.

Coach Hue Jackson has made the decision to start Kizer week one against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Therefore his growing pains are going to start early and he may very well have to shoulder the entire offense load. That’s not a good thing. Cleveland’s coaching staff and management is willing to suffer through his development, while investing in his future. He may fulfill this prediction of mine in season number one.

He will have to rely on guys who may not be on the roster next season as the team goes through a rebuilding period. It’s safe to say the turnovers will pile up, even it they aren’t entirely his fault.

Most likely to lead the League in interceptions (takeaways)…. Tre’Davious White (27th overall pick/Buffalo Bills). He hails from DBU better known as LSU, the same school that brought the NFL Patrick Petersen, Tyrann Mathieu and Morris Claiborne to name a few. The Bills still have a strong front seven that will put pressure on opposing QBs causing them to force some passes where they shouldn’t. Plus he plays in the AFC East where outside of Tom Brady, the quarterback play is VERY shoddy.

Most likely to be Offensive Rookie of the Year…. Christian McCaffrey (8th overall pick/Carolina Panthers). The Carolina Panthers will be attempting to lessen the workload on Cam Newton after his off-season shoulder surgery. Thus, they drafted McCaffrey in the first round to make use of his versatility. The Stanford alum is an all-purpose back that can contribute in the running, passing and return game. He’s going to get the most opportunities of any offensive player in this draft class.

Most likely to be Defensive Player of the Year…

Linebackers and defensive ends have dominated this award. Basically, pass rushers. The guy I really like is San Francisco 49ers LB Reuben Foster out of Alabama (31st overall pick/San Francisco 49ers). He never should have fallen this far, but, character issues hurt him.

The Niners used their two first round picks on defense (DT Solomon Thomas 3rd overall pick). While everyone is expecting new Head Coach Kyle Shanahan to rev up the offense, the San Fran D has drastically declined since the days competing with Seattle for the NFC West crown under Jim Harbaugh. Foster will rack up the tackles on a team that was the 32nd ranked defense last season. If he has the numbers and as a unit they continue to climb to a top ten team, many voters will point to him as the catalyst.

Most likely to be steal of the draft… Jake Butt (5th round, 145th pick/Denver Broncos) a nasty knee injury in Michigan’s bowl game is the reason he fell this far. Coming into the 2016 College football season, he was a projected first round pick. It was between him and Alabama’s O.J. Howard, who was selected in the first round by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, as to which was the better all-around tight end.

Denver has young QBs who will need a safety blanket in the middle of the field. He will be that. Plus, he will draw lots of one-on-one coverage with Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders stretching defenses out deep down field.

Most likely to be a perennial All-Pro…. Ryan Ramczyk (32nd overall pick/New Orleans Saints). He comes from Wisconsin where they churn out as many All-Pro offensive linemen as the state does butter. Not really, but you get it. Joe Thomas of the Cleveland Browns, Travis Frederick of the Dallas Cowboys and Kraig Urbik of the Miami Dolphins to name a few.

Ramczyk will be charged with keeping Drew Brees up right so he can continue to pass for 5,000+ yards a season. One of the easiest ways to make an All-Pro team is to block for a QB that puts up historic numbers or a RB that is a top five rusher

Most likely to be NFL MVP…. Only six non-QBs have won the award in the last twenty seasons. The six players were running backs and one of them (Barry Sanders, 1997) shared it with Brett Favre. Therefore it’s not going out on a limb for me to predict a QB from the 2017 class will one day etch their name on the trophy.

With that being said, I’m going with DeShaun Watson (12th overall pick/Houston Texans). He’s a better version of Dak Prescott. No disrespect to the Dallas Cowboys quarterback and reigning Offensive Player of the Year. But, Watson has the same intangibles to lead a team and a better skill set. He’s shown it on the biggest stage in back-to-back National Championship games against a vaunted Alabama Crimson Tide team. His college coach Dabo Sweeney said he has some “Michael Jordan in him.” It’s hard to disagree after what we’ve already seen. The Texans are tailor-made for him to step in and lead them to glory.

Most likely to be Super Bowl MVP… Once again I’m going with DeShaun Watson. He has the number one ranked defense. The only thing that has been missing from the Houston Texans over the last three seasons has been a competent QB. Watson is more than competent and very capable of leading a team as he showed in college at Clemson. He’s a big gamer and his abilities will be even more amplified by a coach that’s already work with arguably the greatest QB of All-Time, Tom Brady.

 

Kansas City Redemption

Reid and Smith lead the Kansas City Redemption. (Courtesy:USATSI)

Andy Reid and Alex Smith were cast aside by their former teams, now they’ve joined together to write their own redemption song—turning a 2-14 team into a Super Bowl Contender in less then 10 months.

Alex Smith spent seven up and down years in a San Francisco 49er uniform. He fought off nagging injuries, several veteran backup QB acquisitions and a revolving door of Head Coaches and Offensive Coordinators, only to be replaced when he was finally settling in and proving himself worthy of being drafted #1 overall in 2005.

Andy Reid spent fourteen up and down season as the head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles—one of those included a Super Bowl appearance and four NFC Championship game loses—while dealing with a testy fan base that wanted him gone after every NFC Championship loss, injuries to his franchise QB Donovan McNabb, criticism of his lack of a more physical running game and defensive philosophy—oh and Terrell Owens—only to be released during one of the most difficult times of his life.

2012 was Reid’s most challenged season as he mourned his son’s death. (Courtesy: Mel Evans/AP)

Last season, Reid’s son Garrett was found dead during the Philadelphia Eagles 2012 training camp. I’m not a parent, but I’ve been told that every parent’s worse nightmare is to out live their child. So when that happened, one could imagine that football was the last thing on Andy Reid’s mind during the season. The Eagles finished the season 4-12, missing the playoffs for the second consecutive season. From 1999 to 2012, Reid led Philadelphia to 130 wins. It still wasn’t enough to stave off the chants of those who said it was time for a new voice in the locker room. It even seemed like in the final weeks of the season, Reid accepted it was time to move on too.

Less traumatic for Alex Smith, he suffered a concussion against the St. Louis Rams in the 2012 season and was Wally Pipp’ed by Colin Kaepernick. This after leading the 49ers to within a muffed punt return of the Super Bowl in the 2012 playoffs, and starting the following season posting career best numbers. By the way, San Francisco was 6-2 at the time of his Injury.

Smith supported Kaepernick, even when he knew his time in San Francisco was over. (Courtesy: AP)

His record (38-36-1) and average stats (59.3% completion, 81 TDs to 63 Ints )—in addition to Kaepernick’s potential—are ultimately what made Coach Jim Harbaugh and 49er management feel comfortable moving on without him.

Smith, like Reid during his painful struggle, handled the benching with grace. He said and did all the right things while helping his replacement. That is why so many are rooting for his redemption and Reid as well. In the offseason, both men were notified their services were no longer needed. Reid was released, Smith later traded to Kansas City, when Reid got the job. Reid wanted Smith, which makes this redemption story even sweeter.

The problem with Smith in San Francisco was, he was always the other regime’s guy. Making matters worse, he was chosen over Aaron Rogers as the Niners contemplated picking him instead.

Smith is now Andy Reid’s guy, and he’s proving to be a good choice. In Kansas City he’s playing for a team that is similarly built to the 49er one he almost lead to a Super Bowl and probably would’ve led to Super Bowl 47 had he not been benched.

The Chiefs Defense gives up only 12.3 points per game, while scoring 6 TDs (4 Ints, 2 Fumbles) for a Head Coach who has been known more for his offensive mentality, than his defense. The Chiefs’ D also leads the league in takeaways and defensive touchdowns. Meanwhile Smith is proving he is more than a game manager—(9 TDs, 1,919 yards, 4 TOs, 81.4 RTG )—a label many have negatively placed on him. Now he has Kansas City playing their best since 2000.

BUT, there has been some reservation over the undefeated start because of the competition they’ve faced—five backup quarterbacks— but it’s not their fault, they’ve just played the teams on the schedule.

Now comes their toughest test of the season. After their bye week, the Chiefs face Peyton Manning and division foe Denver Broncos (8-1) twice, followed by a match up with another talented QB in Phillip Rivers and the San Diego Chargers, twice. The rest of the schedule also gets tougher than their first nine games.

Most “experts” will predict the Broncos to beat the Chiefs for their first loss of the season. They’ll also use a loss as a way to discount their 9-0 start. BUT, what if they win? On Monday November 18th, 2013, when Kansas City is 10-0, the last undefeated team in the NFL, will they be the favorites to hold up the Lombardi Trophy at midfield of MetLife Stadium on a cold, snowy, windy early February night (hopefully) in the Tri-State area?

They should be, and judging by these two men’s pasts in the league, that will be the perfect, REDEMPTION.

What to Watch in Week Three

In my look ahead pieces, I will choose the games getting the most buzz or I foresee playing a huge factor near the end of the season – I.E. the games we will look back at and say “ah hah” – when playoff positioning starts.

First, It’s homecoming week in the NFL. Kansas City Chief Head Coach Andy Reid returns to the “City of Brotherly Love” where he coached for 15 seasons with the Eagles. Reid’s Chiefs are 2-0 and his new quarterback, Alex Smith looks very comfortable in his new surroundings after several up and down years in San Francisco.

Coach Reid won 130 games with the Eagles from 1999-2012. He is known for his west coast offense, but it is the Chiefs Defense that has taken control in the victories. It is a top 3 Defense that allows only 248 yards and 9 points per game, good for second best. Granted one of their opponents was the woeful Jacksonville jaguars, but the other, the offensive minded Dallas Cowboys.

The Philadelphia Eagles have proven they can score in bunches, and will need to in order to get back on track after losing at home last week to the San Diego Chargers. If the Eagles defense can hold the Chiefs offense under or around their 22.5 points per game average, while posting their 31.5 average, they’ll spoil Reid’s Homecoming and Donovan McNabb’s Jersey retirement.

Another homecoming game, Ed Reed hopes to make his 2013 season debut Sunday back in Baltimore. Reed spent 11 seasons in “Charm City” and was an iconic leader of the vaunted Ravens D. Reed is one of the 9 defensive starters the Ravens lost from their Super Bowl Championship team and he’ll get a first hand look at the disaster his skipping town left. The Ravens D gives up 384.5 yards and 20.5 points per game. The Texans offense should have a field day, if Andre Johnson plays after having concussion symptoms from a hit he took against Tennessee. With him, Houston racks up 477 yards per game, while scoring at a clip of 30.5 points per game.

The Texans D will have a leg up, as Reed knows what Joe Flacco and that Ravens offense likes to do. Plus they’re already dominate. They only allow 255.5 yards and 26 points per game and that’s without the savvy Reed. The Ravens have struggled out the gate and this game could very well show more of their flaws.

Here are some quick hitters….

COLTS @ 49ERS

It’s not a homecoming game, but it’s close. Andrew luck will return to Northern California not far from where he stared at Stanford university for 4 years. It will also be a reunion of sorts. He’ll face off against his college coach, Jim Harbaugh for the first time. The Colts made a big splash Wednesday with their acquisition of Luck’s draft mate, 3rd pick from 2012, Trent Richardson. Nobody knows how much he’ll play, but as the season rolls on, Richardson will give the Colts that one-two punch in the backfield they used to have with Peyton Manning and Edgerrin Janes.

The Niners are trying to bounce back from a terrible, embarrassing loss to division rival Seattle. Seattle plays Jacksonville, so you can book that as a win. San Francisco can’t lose to the Colts and fall two games back of the Seahawks.

PACKERS @ BENGALS

Both teams got their first win of the 2013 season last week, and both are in tough divisions where one loss could be the difference from being in or out the playoffs at seasons end. The Bengals played Monday night, which usually spells doom for teams in the following week; luckily for them they don’t have to go on the road. So the one less day of preparation shouldn’t hurt to bad.

LIONS @ REDSKINS

If making the playoffs is hard at 0-2, it’s damn near impossible at 0-3. That’s the mountain RGIII and Washington will have to climb if they lose this game. Griffin’s offseason knee rehab mantra was “All In For Week One”, he and the rest of the Skins better be “All In For Week Three” it could be very well be “All Over For 2013” and there will be fallout in D.C. Especially if RGIII struggles more. There will be calls for his backup, Kirk Cousins.